Fantasy related but good info.....
Embattled Augustin
Coaches make far less money than players. They don't put fans in the seats like players and they take the blame when things go wrong. But coaches do hold one trump card -- they control the minutes.
So when a player's concentration or effort level dips, the most effective way to get that back is to threaten roles. We saw it in Golden State with Andris Biedrins, and we are seeing it now in Charlotte with struggling D.J. Augustin.
NBA coaches are constantly tinkering, toying and yanking around with rotations. The effect this has on minutes played and statistical production is where we come in.
Each week in this space, I'll explore the rotations of half the league's teams while attempting to get inside coaches' heads and rotations. The idea is not to tell you what Kevin Durant and LeBron James are going to do -- it's to decipher how much production we can get out of fringe players. Last week, I hit the West. Let's start this week off with the battle for point guard minutes in Charlotte.
* Note that lineups listed reflect the starters in the team's previous game. Stats are through Monday's games unless otherwise noted.
<BIG>CHARLOTTE</BIG>
PG D.J. Augustin
SG Stephen Jackson
SF Gerald Wallace
PF Boris Diaw
C Kwame Brown
The controversy between D.J. Augustin and Shaun Livingston has seemingly erupted out of nowhere. Augustin was coasting along, averaging 18.1 points, 7.3 assists and 1.9 treys per game in 16 January contests. Then the bottom absolutely fell out on his shooting stroke. Entering Monday, Augustin was shooting 29.9 percent in his last seven games, got benched in favor of Livingston on Saturday and picked up a left wrist injury. Yikes.
Coach Paul Silas appeared to enter Monday night's game against the Lakers with a premeditated rotation. Augustin played the entire first quarter and Livingston played the entire second quarter. Augustin then played the first nine minutes of the third quarter and the final six minutes of the game. That kind of rotation, one used when a coach doesn't see a huge gap between his starter and backup, results in 27 minutes for Augustin and 21 for Livingston.
This kind of rotation also says that Silas is not willing to give up on Augustin. If he plays well, DJA will get back around 30-32 minutes. If he doesn't this value-killing timeshare will remain. Either way, Livingston does not project as a long-term starter in this league anymore. His injuries are just too severe and the Bobcats know it. Leave Livingston on waivers and stash Augustin -- he's a good bet to get back to that January form.
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<BIG>ATLANTA</BIG>
PG Mike Bibby
SG Joe Johnson
SF Josh Smith
PF Al Horford
C Jason Collins
Coach Larry Drew has been threatening lineup changes in an effort to put a jolt into his struggling team. The problem is that there is not much he can do. Jason Collins drew the start Monday night, but shuttling between the big man and Marvin Williams makes almost no difference. Marvin averages just 11.0/5.0/1.3 with no defensive stats or treys as a starter anyway. Ignore.
One adjustment that Drew has made is sitting Jamal Crawford down when the gunner is cold. Crawford has played 29 or fewer minutes in four of his last six games and he is shooting 37.2 percent over that span. Stash and wait for the sixth man of the year to get hot again.
<BIG>BOSTON</BIG>
PG Rajon Rondo
SG Ray Allen
SF Paul Pierce
PF Kevin Garnett
C Kendrick Perkins
With Kendrick Perkins healthy and looking as good as ever, Shaquille O'Neal can afford to rest his achy Achilles, hip and soul. And since both Semih Erden and Jermaine O'Neal are also out indefinitely, Perkins is back to being a force.
Over the last five games, Perkins is averaging 9.6 points, 9.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in 32.5 minutes per game. Those minutes will come down once all the bodies get healthy, but who knows when that will be. Owners might as well ride Perk into the ground.
Paul Pierce could certainly use a rest. Sunday's 0-for-10, the ensuing foot MRI and a right (shooting) hand tweak tell us that. Owners should be hoping he just lounges throughout All-Star weekend instead of exerting himself. Still, we need to be realistic about his first half. Pierce is a career 44.7 percent shooter. He shot 49.6 in the season's first 53 games. A natural regression in his shooting -- but not minutes -- can be expected.
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<BIG>CHICAGO</BIG>
PG Derrick Rose
SG Keith Bogans
SF Luol Deng
PF Carlos Boozer
C Kurt Thomas
Joakim Noah (hand) is targeting Feb. 23 -- the first game after the All-Star break -- for his return. He is reportedly in excellent physical shape and since his game does not rely on touch, we can safely expect instant production/minutes. Look for him to start the first or second game he dresses, sending Kurt Thomas to the waiver wire.
The Bulls do not want to pull the trigger on an Omer Asik for Courtney Lee trade. That tells me they are okay with Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer maintaining their timeshare. Stashing O.J. Mayo and hoping he becomes the Bulls' starting two guard is a desperate play.
Editor's Note: For weekly projections, daily pickup advice, exclusive columns and much more, check out Rotoworld's Season Pass!
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<BIG>CLEVELAND</BIG>
PG Mo Williams
SG Anthony Parker
SF Christian Eyenga
PF Antawn Jamison
C J.J. Hickson
Byron Scott has made a couple things very clear: First, he considers Mo Williams his starting point guard, no matter how well Ramon Sessions is playing. Second, he views Daniel Gibson as a scorer off the bench.
We can't be certain if the Cavs are simply showcasing Williams for a trade, but his contract is going to be extremely difficult to move. He is making $9.3 million this year and has two years and $17 million left after that. With the new CBA looming, it's hard to see a team willing to take that much money on. The same can be said for Antawn Jamison (due $15 million next season).
So, we are looking at Sessions as a backup point guard. Here is coach Byron Scott on the situation: "[Sessions'] role hasn't changed, just his minutes have changed." That is about as clear as it gets.
Even with Daniel Gibson (quad) out again, Sessions' arrow is pointing way down. In 21 starts this year, he is averaging 32.1 minutes per game. In 33 games off the bench, that number falls to 24.1. Hold Sessions through the deadline, but we will likely have to cut bait after that.
Speaking of cutting bait, Daniel Gibson's latest quad aggravation is a headache. Scott is on the record saying that he prefers Gibson off the bench no matter what, so minutes will be sporadic even when healthy. Look for anywhere from 20 to 32 minutes a night behind Anthony Parker, depending on game flow. If you can deal with the headaches, you'll get about 2.0 3-pointers per game when it is said and done.
Christian Eyenga is locked in as the starting small forward. The Cavs are high on his future and are giving him a chance to spread his wings. He won't score much despite 27-plus minutes nightly, but deep leaguers could use his steals and blocks.
<BIG>DETROIT</BIG>
PG Tracy McGrady
SG Rodney Stuckey
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Greg Monroe
C Ben Wallace
In this space two weeks, ago I predicted Ben Gordon would be relegated to a sixth man role once Rodney Stuckey got healthy. Every squirrel finds a nut sometimes. Stuckey and Tracy McGrady are locked in as the starting backcourt, leaving Gordon with 24-27 minutes a night. Once T-Mac gets hurt, Stuckey would kick to point guard and Gordon would likely rejoin the starting five.
Meanwhile, Stuckey's minutes will gradually rise. Coach John Kuester sees the combo guard as his best bet to win, even when guys like Will Bynum and Gordon have it going. Look for Stuckey to settle in around 30-32 minutes the rest of the way as a low-end fantasy option.
The Pistons have chose to run with a twin towers lineup of Greg Monroe at power forward and Ben Wallace at center. It shows their commitment to developing Monroe, but it doesn't help the rookie's inconsistency. He appears bothered by playing next to Big Ben and has scored less than 10 points in each of his last four games. The good news is that we know the minutes will be here, there's room to grow.
<BIG>INDIANA</BIG>
PG Darren Collison
SG Mike Dunleavy
SF Danny Granger
PF Josh McRoberts
C Roy Hibbert
Interim coach Frank Vogel has used the exact same starting five in each of his eight games, producing an impressive 7-1 record. Let's look at some minutes per game over that stretch.
WINGS
Danny Granger: 34.1
Mike Dunleavy: 24.0
Paul George: 23.4
Dahntay Jones: 14.5
Note that Brandon Rush (ankle) is relatively healthy, but there is simply no room for him in the rotation with the team playing like it is right now. That leaves Mike Dunleavy and Paul George locked in a nearly even timeshare, something that figures to continue the rest of the way. George is the one to take a shot on as the player with greater upside, but he's a poor bet for difference-making stats this season. There just are not enough minutes and Rush is talented enough to fill in should Dunleavy get hurt. In standard-sized formats, this whole situation is "hands off" outside of Danny Granger.
POWER FORWARD
Josh McRoberts: 26.6
Tyler Hansbrough: 21.8
These two have settled into their roles nicely. Hansbrough has proven he can be a strong scoring option with the second unit, while McRoberts stabilizes the starters with his unselfish play. Hansbrough clearly has the better offensive game, but his lack of steals, blocks or assists is embarrassing. So with the edge in minutes likely to hold and the better fantasy game, McRoberts is the one to own here for deep leaguers.
There is not much to say about Roy Hibbert, other than it is going down just as we thought it would. In the eight games under Vogel, Hibbert is averaging 16.3 points, 7.9 boards and 1.5 blocks. He has been moved to the block and the Pacers are now playing inside-out instead of simply chucking up treys. Expect 31-33 minutes of high-end production nightly the rest of the way.
<BIG>MIAMI</BIG>
PG Mario Chalmers
SG Dwyane Wade
SF LeBron James
PF Chris Bosh
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas
The Heat have started playing without a point guard on the court for huge portions of games. Over the last six games, Mario Chalmers is playing 21.9 minutes while Carlos Arroyo has a DNP-CD in five of those. Coach Erik Spoelstra is fine with using Dwyane Wade or LeBron James as his point guard as he looks toward the playoffs. Both are lined up for monster minutes.
Meanwhile, this bench continues to be a wasteland. Mike Miller will have a decent game randomly, but there is simply not enough shots to go around. Over the last eight games, he is averaging just 5.8 attempts per game. Even his roto-friendly skill set can’t survive that.
Random stat: Joel Anthony is averaging 2.6 blocks per 36 minutes.
<BIG>MILWAUKEE</BIG>
PG Brandon Jennings
SG John Salmons
SF Carlos Delfino
PF Ersan Ilyasova
C Andrew Bogut
Corey Maggette's back injury is not considered overly serious -- it would be a surprise if he is not ready right after the All-Star break. At that point, it will be a battle between Maggette and Carlos Delfino for minutes. Considering that the Bucks are dead last in the NBA in scoring at an anemic 91.2 points per game, they badly need someone that can create their own shot and get to the line. That man is Maggette. They also need someone to stretch the floor with 3-point shooting. That man is Delfino.
Here is a quote from coach Scott Skiles Monday night when he announced that Maggette would be out. "I want to get Carlos back in there and this gives me an opportunity to do it." There is enough room here for both players to play around 30 minutes. The Bucks will just have to sacrifice Chris Douglas-Roberts and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Hold both Delfino and Maggette -- with Delfino as the preferred option thanks to his extreme roto-friendly game.
John Salmons is not part of the wing battle here. Much like Danny Granger in Indiana, Salmons is above the fray. Salmons has played in 75 games for the Bucks over the last 1 1/2 years, starting 70 of those. The only ones he didn't start were right after the trade and last week when he was coming off injury. He is locked in to 34-37 minutes nightly.
<BIG>NEW JERSEY</BIG>
PG Devin Harris
SG Anthony Morrow
SF Travis Outlaw
PF Derrick Favors
C Brook Lopez
Anthony Morrow has resumed his starting role and logging huge minutes. In his last six games heading into Monday night, the sharpshooter was averaging 11.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.8 treys per game in 34.5 minutes a night. He projects to maintain that kind of workload, making two-plus treys a night a strong bet going forward.
Meanwhile, Travis Outlaw is on the verge of losing his starting job due to ineffectiveness. Heading into Monday, Outlaw had started 50 games but was shooting 38.4 percent. It's just not good enough, and Damion James will take over as soon as he is healthy. Look for an even timeshare, with neither player emerging with any value.
Coach Avery Johnson is going to keep starting Derrick Favors, but he doesn't seem too happy about it. Here is a recent quote from Johnson: "Even next year, Favors is not going to be a stud. He's not going to be able to play 38 minutes. Who knows when? You see him every night. He's not ready." The current timeshare (20 minutes for Favors, 27 for Kris Humphries) will remain the status quo.
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<BIG>NEW YORK</BIG>
PG Raymond Felton
SG Landry Fields
SF Danilo Gallinari
PF Wilson Chandler
C Timofey Mozgov
Coach Mike D'Antoni likes the idea of playing a true center next to Amare Stoudemire and he is intrigued by Timofey Mozgov's raw skills. As long as the big Russian does not completely faceplant, he'll start going forward. Here are Mozgov's numbers over his last four games since earning the promotion: 8.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 26.5 minutes. Those are reasonable expectations going forward.
Amare Stoudemire's toe injury does not sound serious, but he would be wise to sit out Wednesday anyway as it is the last before the All-Star break. That means Wilson Chandler (assuming he does not get traded) would stick in the starting five for just one more game.
Owners of Chandler should be hoping for a trade to Denver. In 30 starts this year, Chandler is averaging 37.9 minutes. In 20 games off the bench, he gets 29.3. It is still enough to have value in New York, but Chandler's upside is capped as a reserve. In Denver, he would settle nicely into a starting small forward role and would not have to fight for shots with Carmelo Anthony. And if Anthony is dealt, the Nuggets would be wise to blow it up and trade Chauncey Billups/Nene as well. Hold Chandler through the deadline.
<BIG>ORLANDO</BIG>
PG Jameer Nelson
SG Jason Richardson
SF Hedo Turkoglu
PF Ryan Anderson
C Dwight Howard
Brandon Bass came off the bench in his return from an ankle sprain Sunday, but that won't last. In Ryan Anderson's seven starts, the Magic went just 4-3. Additionally, Anderson struggled as a starter, shooting 41.2 percent and playing 25.8 minutes. He was playing 25.0 minutes off the bench in his previous 16 games anyway.
Look for the old splits to take hold again. Anderson will play about 25 minutes while Bass will get about 27.5. Anderson is the one to own as the deadly 3-point shooter -- he will get hot again. Meanwhile, Bass averages just 12.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 0.6 blocks in 26 games as a starter this season. His game does not have much upside.
Two weeks ago, I recommended dumping Gilbert Arenas in this space. Nothing has changed. He looks lost on the court and his confidence is somehow shot. With just 20.5 minutes a night over his last seven games, there is nothing to see here.
<BIG>PHILADELPHIA</BIG>
PG Jrue Holiday
SG Jodie Meeks
SF Andre Iguodala
PF Elton Brand
C Spencer Hawes
Jrue Holiday is worn down physically and mentally, but his talent level is too high for fantasy owners -- or the Sixers -- to bail on. We saw that on Friday night when Holiday came out of nowhere to torch the Spurs for 27 in 37.7 minutes. The All-Star break will do him wonders and 31-33 minutes nightly down the stretch of the season is a good bet.
Andre Iguodala's new role as a point-forward, is another story. No matter what Doug Collins says, it is not a fluke that Iguodala is averaging 8.0 assists since the switch seven games ago while Holiday is at 3.7. The point guard in the Sixers' offense initiates things by passing the ball to the wing and getting it back off a down screen. Then the point guard runs a pick-and-roll up top. Iguodala simply has the ball in hands more now, sending his arrow up and Holiday's down.
Speaking of Iguodala, I highly doubt he gets traded at the deadline. After a 3-13 start, the Sixers have gone 23-15. They finally have a buzz and will make the playoffs if they keep Iguodala. This rotation -- bench roles included -- is locked in the rest of the way.
<BIG>TORONTO</BIG>
PG Jose Calderon
SG DeMar DeRozan
SF Sonny Weems
PF Amir Johnson
C Andrea Bargnani
Leandro Barbosa has come off a hamstring injury and assumed his old role. He will play about 24 minutes off the bench nightly, leading to wild inconsistency but upside in treys and steals. Deep leaguers could do worse, especially with Linas Kleiza (knee) done for the year.
Sonny Weems is locked in as the starting small forward and will play around 30 minutes most nights, but the lack of treys is a real downer. In his last six games, Weems is averaging 10.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 0.0 3-pointers. We can do better.
The power forward spot here is interesting. Amir Johnson appeared to finally "get it," averaging 14.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in 32.4 minutes over his last 10 games prior to Sunday. His percentages have the potential to be difference-making: 58.5 percent from the field and 80.8 from the line this season. However, sustaining this run is going to be a problem. Always playing through nagging injuries, Johnson is now dealing with ankle and back woes. Ed Davis is coming on and Reggie Evans (foot) is coming back. Johnson should hold the starting gig, but something closer to 26-28 minutes is more reasonable after the All-Star break.
I like Ed Davis' skill set, but he is not going to separate from Johnson/Evans. Still just a 21-year-old rookie, Davis needs to be brought along slowly. Expecting more than 22-24 minutes nightly is reaching.
<BIG>WASHINGTON</BIG>
PG John Wall
SG Nick Young
SF Josh Howard
PF Andray Blatche
C JaVale McGee
Rashard Lewis' knee woes are a major concern. He is 31 years old and playing for a team that is 15-38. Why force it through painful tendinitis? The situation has (coincidentally?) gotten progressively worse since Lewis joined the Wizards, and a shutdown is possible. Limited minutes and days offs on back-to-backs are likely, especially with Lewis admitting that he will need an offseason scope.
Enter Josh Howard. Coach Flip Saunders ditched the idea of a three-guard lineup by bring Kirk Hinrich off the bench Sunday, but Hinrich still played 29.2 minutes. Howard played 25.1. That figures to be a reasonable split as long as Lewis is out -- Howard has had complications in his recovery from ACL surgery and will not push 30 minutes per game at any point this year. Unless Lewis completely shuts it down, Howard won't be worth the headache.
Meanwhile, Hinrich's minutes and production are more stable. Even when Rashard Lewis plays, Hinrich gets plenty of burn as the third guard. Over the last six games, Hinrich is averaging 12.2 points, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 treys. He's the one to add despite the bench role.
